So, Cliff Lee signed with the Phillies much to the dismay of the Yankees and Rangers. It seems that in the dying seconds, the Phils swept in and grabbed Lee with a 5 year deal. Despite the fact that Lee took less years from Philadelphia in the offer that he accepted, he took what was the best deal overall.
Most of the articles written about this signing and many of the sports radio guys down here in the DFW (everyone but the Ticket) are groaning about the fact that Lee is giving up astronomical amounts of money to go to Philly. The fact of the matter is, he isn’t. Lee is still getting $24 mil a year for five years. A sixth year is either going to be a vested $27 mil or a $12.5 mil buyout, so he basically has 6 years for at least $132 mil, if not $147 mil. The Yankees offered him about $22.5 a year, the Rangers offered about $23 mil a year, but would not guarantee a seventh. So…. In conclusion, they all offered roughly the same thing. The seventh year did not matter, and Lee wanted to create a monster rotation for the Phillies. Which brings us to….
Are the Phillies now the World Series favorites?
I am usually wrong in my predictions. By that I mean, I have never been right, but I do not think Philadelphia is the strongest team in the Majors for 3 reasons:
1. Their Offense.
The Phils were 12th in the majors in batting avg. (which I take very little stock in), 13th in OBP, and 12th in slugging. It is important to note that all of those numbers were good enough to be tops in the NL East. In what is a big name offense who led the Phillies in OBP last year? Carlos Ruiz. OPS? Jayson Werth.
Ryan Howard’s walk numbers have plummeted since being named MVP in 2006, and his power numbers have fallen off as well (most likely a direct result using Dick’s Sporting Goods shit gear). Jimmy Rollins hit .243 in fairly limited time. If this offense stays healthy and returns to old form it is the best in the NL East, but with that rotation it is not about the East. It is about a pennant… Which brings us to October and reason #2.
2. Recent Playoff History.
Projected top 4 in the Phillies rotation next year: Halladay, Lee, Oswalt, Hamels.
Anyone watch the playoffs last year?
NLCS- Giants beat the Phils in 6 games beating Halladay, Hamels, and Oswalt in the process, but they didn’t have Lee.
World Series- The Giants beat the Rangers in 5 games beating one Clifton Phifer Lee not once, but twice in the process.
Maybe it was a team of destiny or some such nonsense, but they knocked around this dream staff pretty good. No pennant for the Phillies.
Does adding Lee make them the team to beat in the NL? Yes, probably, but….
3. There is a monster in the AL, too.
The Red Sox are the best team in baseball. I was actually saying this before the acquisitions of Crawford and Gonzalez, but they just furthered the point. Prior to the signing of Cliff Lee by Philly, the Sox had far and away the best staff in baseball. Bucholz and Lester both had Cy Young caliber years last year. Josh Beckett is a stud, and he is only 30, and John Lackey won 14 games in his 1st season with the Sox. Say what you want about Dice K, but that is a pretty solid option at #5 (if ever healthy).
The Sox have a complete lineup, and a solid defense. With that staff and those bats they have to be the preseason favorite.
With the Sox being so deep, and Cliff Lee (and his spit coated wife) going elsewhere, what are the boys in Bronx supposed to do?
Well, first thing’s first. Don’t shit your pants, Cashman.
Here’s to hoping that Brian Cashman does not feel a need to go out and flex his pinstriped nuts on the trade market. The Yankees have actually been semi- prudent in holding onto prospects in the last couple of years, and it could pay dividends. Their catching prospect, Jesus Montero has shown promise, and is poised to get time in throughout 2011. Today’s acquisition of Russell Martin is hopefully not a sign that they are trying to make Montero expendable, but that would not surprise me in the least.
There are still a few guys available that could help the Yankees out a bit, but this might be a situation where they have to offer about 10 guys deals and have them compete. They just signed Mark Prior to a minor league deal. This is extremely low risk, but it would be nice to see him and Kerry Wood back together again. Wood is someone they have to sign as he was invaluable down the stretch.
Amongst the other available names, Brandon Webb and Chris Young are the two that stick out, but neither is a proven commodity. Jeff Francis might be a low risk lefthander to take a chance on, but only because there are no other lefty starters out there.
I would not be surprised to see them go out and grab Magglio Ordonez now that they have been snakebit by the other free agents.
There is still hope in the East for the Bombers as Tampa liquidated, but I don’t think a trade for an arm (Greinke) would be the answer right now. Get Andy to come back and play one more year, something inside me wants to see the Yankees win(or lose) with their own guys for once.