Blue Duck Sports – Week 2 NFL Betting Guide

September 15, 2009

With week 1 in the bag Blue Duck Sports is back with the lineup for week 2.  Week one was a fairly successful outing, going 10-6 and providing those of you who followed our advice to have a profitable weekend.
Last week I went against conventional betting wisdom in 4 games, taking a favorite of more than a touchdown, and it burned me 3/4 times.  I will try my hardest not to make that mistake again but when you have Tom “Sex god” Brady vs Trent Edwards you can’t tell me you won’t take that spread.

Now we look to piss away that extra money in your pockets with this weeks guide. Let me reiterate, the Blue Duck corolla is not available should you lose badly at our advice.  I am however willing to offer up Carebear’s monthly income garnered via gainful employment (Blue Duck is his job).  So yah, we better do well.

Editor-In-Chief and all of his worldly possessions

Editor-In-Chief and all of his worldly possessions

Season Overall: 10-6
Season Locks: 1-0

Titans -7 vs Texans

It took me little more than a paragraph and a clever photograph in order to backpedal on my “don’t take the team favored by a full touchdown” wisdom.
The Texans have 2 players to worry about, Steve Slaton and Andre Johnson.  1 game into the regular season and the Titans look like their defensive line hasn’t missed a beat from last year.  Look for Slaton to be neutralized and Andre to have a big day, but not big enough.

Bengals vs Packers OVER 42

This goes against my gut, but you can’t bet with your gut.  The spread is the Pack by 9, they match up well against the Bengals, and are absolutely dreadful against the spread over the years, but I just haven’t seen enough out of Carson Palmer to know if he is going to give this team a chance every week or not.  So I’ll take the over.

Vikings -9.5 vs Lions

Okay, a team that excels at running the ball and stopping the run vs a team that NEEDS a running game, and desperately struggles to stop the run.  This is an awful matchup for the Lions.  As they provided my only victory last week in which the favored team won by over a touchdown, I will roll with what works.
Did I mention Detroit is 1-9 against the spread as a 3.5-9.5 point underdog over the past 3 seasons?  Love it.

Panthers vs Falcons OVER 43

The Falcons offense looks solid once again.  Look for the Panthers and Jake Delhomme to recover from an awful showing against the Eagles, and keep pace with the Falcons.  I expect the panthers may cover the +6.5 spread, but I like the over in this one.

Redskins -10 vs  Rams

So I basically warned in the first couple paragraphs that conventional wisdom says not to take the heavily favored, but look at this team.  The rams are absolutely terrible.  Don’t get me wrong, the Redskins aren’t that great either, but they do have a good defense and an average offense that ran into a great defense and average offense in week 1.  I will again roll with the heavily favored Redskins, and vow to learn my lesson next week.

Cardinals +3 vs Jaguars

While I have little faith in either team I believe Fitzgerald and Warner should be able to carve apart this Jaguars secondary.  Arizona was able to shut down Frank Gore in week 1, and though they won’t be able to do the same to Jones-Drew it will be just enough.

Raiders vs Chiefs UNDER 39

Lot of tough spreads this week.  This game could go either way but the Raiders defense looks to be decent with a new pass rushing king (Richard Seymour) forcing QB’s to make decisions fast, which will be tough when throwing against the best corner back in the game (Nnamdi Asomugha).  These teams haven’t scored more than 37 combined in any of the past 4 meetings, so I will look for a defensive struggle, or more likely, offensive ineptitude to be the biggest factor here.

Bucs +4.5 vs Bills

A valiant effort by the Bills on Monday night left them completely deflated after having a victory stolen from their grasp.  They will have every opportunity to rebound vs a poor Bucs team that was man handled by the Cowboys.  While I am far from sold on the Bills offense, their defense should be able to hold the Bucs in check, and win by a field goal.

Broncos -3 vs Browns

An even line with the standard home field advantage 3 points for the Broncos.  The Broncos are better than they played vs the bungles and will prove it at Invesco field.  Look for the Broncos to show they are okay without Jay Cutler.

Ravens +3.5 vs Chargers

Solid defense against solid offense.  I put my faith in Joe Flacco (yes the same QB I don’t believe in).  Let’s see how that works out for me.

Giants +3 vs Cowboys

In what is sure to be a good game, look for Eli “The Mediocre” Manning to hand the ball off enough for the Giants to pull out a victory against the Cowboys.  The Cowgirls are a good team, but they still have Tony Romo and his unparalleled ability to choke in big games.

Colts -3 Dolphins

The Dolphins were a flash in the pan last year.  They are going to suck this year.  Bet against them often until Vegas realizes what has happened.

Patriots -5 vs Jets

My love of Tom Brady will not waver.   Look for him to get back into the swing of things against an extremely over rated Jets team.

Saints vs Eagles

This game has no current line set due to the Eagles uncertainty at QB.  If Mcnabb plays I would take the Eagles up to -6.5.  If he is not playing I’d take the Saints up to -6.5.  There is a big swing on that one and that is why they refuse to give out the odds just yet.  I will update this when more info is released about Mcnabb, and when the line comes out.

Lock of the week:

I feel really good about 2 games this week, so I will put my credibility on the line for both of them.

Steelers -3 vs Bears

What the hell is this?  The 4 interception cry baby is favored to lose by only a field goal to the Steelers?  Sure they will be without the long haired warrior Polamalu, but they can handle the pathetic Bears by more than a field goal.

Seahawks +1.5 vs 49ers

Seahawks look like they will be the Seahawks of old and be a contender in the NFC.  The jury is still out on the 49ers but they looked like a new team against the Cardinals.  Seahawks have won the past 4 meetings by at least 3.  I expect that history to continue and love this line.