We are two weeks into the NFL season and still a long way from figuring out the contenders and the pretenders. As a result there are many favorable odds to be found from Vegas though they come with great risk.
Unfortunately the loss of Polamalu hurt the Steelers more than I expected. That little girl Jay Cutler was able to do just enough to win this game for the Bears and ruin my first lock of the week.
As for the Seattle vs San Fran game. The 49ers look like a decent team this year, coupled with loss of Hasselbeck, the Seahawks weren’t in this game at all.
I’m still fairly pleased with the 20-12 overall. Very profitable margin.
Last week: 10-6 Locks: 0-2 Season: 20-12 Season Locks: 1-2
Titans +2.5 vs Jets
The Titans have shown that they are capable of scoring points this year. At the same time they’ve given a decent amount up as well. While Mark “Sanchise” is going to be a good quarterback, I expect the Titans have the proper personnel to confuse him enough to steal the win (and avoid being the best 0-3 team).
Browns+13 vs Ravens
Taking teams favored by a touchdown or more this season has resulted in a stellar 2-4 result in those games. Both of those wins have been with teams going against Detroit. While I hate this pick, I’m going to take conventional betting wisdom and take the heavy underdog.
Giants -7 vs Bucs
Not long after I learn my lesson, I immediately turn around and take the team favored by a touchdown. This is another scary pick as the Giants red zone play calling is just awful to watch and they make blow outs close on a regular basis, but for this week I’ll be cheering on the G-men. Under 44 is also another strong play, these 2 teams have gone under all 7 times they have met since 1992.
Texans -3.5 vs Jaguars
The Texans were able to beat the Titans, even with Chris Johnson steamrolling through them. I expect much of the same vs MJD and the Jags. Look for Matt Schaub to have a good day against a secondary that gave up the best completion percentage over a game in NFL history to Kurt “the grocery bagger” Warner.
49ers vs Vikings OVER 40.5
San Fran is going to have a tough time winning this one. I do however, have faith that they will put up at least 17 with the Vikings and ALL DAY Adrian Peterson covering the rest. Shaun Hill really is an okay quarterback.
Pats vs Falcons OVER 44
All signs seem to be pointing to the Patriots being an average team this year. Tom Brady and this offense are just not clicking…yet. As a Patriots homer it is my duty to not give up hope. It’s far too soon to just think of Tom Brady as being average. As a result the +4 line for the Falcons in this game is very inviting, but this has the makings to be a high scoring game.
Lions +6.5 vs Redskins
The Redskins offense is absolutely terrible. Can someone pass the memo to the Redskins that Jason Campbell is not the answer? I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Lions win this game outright, but I will gladly take the 6.5 point spread.
Packers -6.5 vs Rams
The Packers have not looked as good as many expected them to be. They were embarrassed last week at their home field by a team that no one expected to be any good. This makes for a good statement game against the worst team in the NFL.
Steelers -4 vs Bengals
Great game last week for the Bengals. Really controlled the game with Cedric Benson. Don’t expect the same against the Steelers defense. Big Ben should have a decent day…and MAYBE they will get their running game going.
Broncos +1 vs Raiders
Raiders have a lot of potential, but JaMarcus Russell is still the quarterback right? Yah, I’ll take the underdog Broncos.
Dolphins vs Chargers over 43
This is tough. The Dolphins play a lot of ball control, as evidenced this past Monday night, making it difficult to score a lot of points. They also have a pretty good running game, and a very accurate passer going against a very weak Chargers defense. Chargers have to outscore opponents to have a chance, and they have the offense to do just that. This game should hit the over.
Colts +2 vs Cardinals
Both teams pass to set up the run. I’m giving the edge to Peyton and the Addai/Donald Brown combo. Colts have a better defense and a comparable offense as long as Peyton is on the field.
Panthers vs Cowboys OVER 46
Neither defense has really stepped up, though that should change in this game. Both quarterbacks are turnover prone and it should lead to high scores.
Eagles vs Chiefs
Once again no line for the Eagles as of publishing time. I Like the eagles -6. Even with Kolb. I will update this once a line is available.
Locks of the Week:
Bears – 2.5 vs Seahawks
Matt Hasselbeck looks doubtful to play this Sunday, and while Seneca Wallace is a decent backup he is still a backup. Look for the Bears to win by a touchdown and listen for that obnoxious guy at work on Monday to utter “Da Bears” at least 3 times.
Saints -5.5 vs Bills
Brees dismantled a pretty good defense last week, he should have no problem doing the same against a very average defense this week.