Blue Duck Sports – Week 5 NFL Betting Guide
Okay, so last week was an awful week for picks. Don’t lose faith. Gambling addicts would offer you the term “variance” and move on. I simply will say, it was a strange weekend, and I got unlucky (“if there was no luck involved I’d win every time!”).
What have I learned?
– While a teams defense may be awful, never EVER expect the Raiders to at least score a touchdown.
– The Titans really suck. It’s not a fluke.
– The Packers are not as good as everyone expected them to be.
– The Vikings are better than everyone expected them to be.
– The Chargers are a 2nd half team, but my god their defense is absolutely pathetic. Merriman needs to take a few games off because he is embarassing himself.
So as we hit the 2nd quarter of the season things are starting to become a little clearer.
The Good/Elite teams are becoming clear:
Pats, Jets, Ravens, Colts, Giants, Viking, Saints.
There are quite a few mediocre teams and still some teams we are unsure of:
Bears, 49ers, Falcons, Eagles, Steelers.
Anyways, looking for a big rebound this week, though there are a LOT of favorites, and that’s dangerous.
Last Week: 3-9-1 Locks: 1-1 Season: 32-28-1 Season Locks: 4-3
Cowboys -9 vs Chiefs
The Chiefs have lost by 14 to the Ravens, 20 to the Eagles, and 11 to the Giants. The Cowboys are not very good but they are usually able to beat up on weaker teams, having won by 13 vs the Bucs and 14 vs the Panthers.
Panthers -3.5 vs Redskins
The Redskins are the most under appreciated bad team in the league. They are being over shadowed by the Chiefs, Raiders, Lions, Browns, Bucs, and the Rams. The Redskins were able to beat the Rams by 2 (at home), lose by 5 to the Lions on the road, and squeak 3 by the Bucs at home. They find themselves on the road against a team just on the cusp of being really bad. The Panthers should be able to take care of business.
Giants -16 vs Raiders
This is a huge spread to gamble on, but the Raiders are awful, and the Giants are arguably the best team in the NFL. Jamarcus Russell couldn’t score a touchdown against one of the worst defenses in the NFL last week (houston), I have faith that the Giants can make a win a blow out like they should be.
Bengals vs Ravens OVER 42
The Bengals have combined with their opponents to score 55, 43, and 43 in the last 3 games. While the Ravens have put up 62, 57, 37, and 48. The smart money on this one is laying it on the over.
Browns +6 vs Bills
It’s tough to bet on the Bills at this point who have been proving that firing an offensive coordinator ~10 days before the start of the season is an awful idea. I believe the Bills will win by a field goal as I know Eric Mangini is more than capable of putting together an 0-16 season.
Steelers -10.5 vs Lions
The Steelers have pulled off a victory and 2 losses of 3 in the first 3 games, until last week when they embarassed a sad Chargers defense by 10 points. The Lions have lost by 18 ,14, and 24, and snuck in a win over the Redskins. The Lions have been historically good against the spread in the last 10 games when underdogs by 10+ with an 8-2 record in that time. I’ll forego history on this one and go with the current trends.
49ers -2.5 vs Falcons
The 49ers are better than expected and this defense is thriving off the kick in the ass that Mike Singletary gave them. The Falcons are good (and have been my pick for getting to the superbowl in the NFC) but I’m not sure they are good enough on defense to win this game.
Cardinals -5.5 vs Texans
Kurt Warner should have his way with the still porous Texans defense. I think both teams suck, so it’s tough take either by more than a field goal, but I’ll trust in the grocery bagger this week.
Patriots -3 vs Broncos
Josh Mcdaniels will obviously know the ins and outs of the Patriots plays, but so will Bill Belichek. If I had to choose which one that plays an advantage too, I’ll take the future hall of famer. In addition to the obvious coaching advantage the Patriots are just flat out more talented than the Broncos, whose defense will face its first real test of the season against a Patriots offense starting to come together.
Bucs vs Eagles
No spread for this game yet. I’d take the Eagles -8.5 with or without Mcnabb.
Jags vs Seahawks
No spread on this either. Hasselbeck might be back this week, and that makes this a tough game to call. The Jags showed life last week, and with no Hasselbeck I would be inclined to take the Jags -3. I’ll update this and the Eagles game if a line becomes available.
Locks of the week:
Colts -3.5 vs Titans
The Jaguars blew out the Titans by 20 last week.
That’s really all you need to know.
Jets -2 vs Dolphins
Look for the dirty Sanchez to have a rebound game for the Jets. The Dolphins should struggle to move the ball on the ground vs the Jets defense. Forcing the game onto Henne’s arm which is not a good idea with the swarming Jets D.